Fede Valverde: the king of scoring impossible goals

Federico Valverde's superb 93rd-minute goal earned Real Madrid a crucial 1-0 win over Athletic Bilbao and kept his side on Barcelona's tail in the Spanish title race. Not only did the Uruguayan's strike expose the recurring goalscoring troubles for 'Los Blancos', but it also highlighted his ability to convert the most impossible chances on paper.

And the BeSoccer Pro data shows just that. Looking at Valverde's expected goals (xG) data, ranked from 0 to 1 based on the difficulty of executing a goal, over the past three seasons, demonstrates how he has become the player who has made the most out of his expected goals from the 15-time Champions League winners' squad.

To understand how this is the case, it is necessary to grasp the meaning of the term NPxG Difference. In short, it's the difference between a player or team's expected goals and their actual goals scored, without counting penalties. It assesses a player or team's ability to create and execute goalscoring chances from open play or set pieces. In such circumstances, Valverde excels, counting a difference of +8.28.

Out of the 86 shots on target he took over the past three campaigns (2022/23, 2023/24, 2024/25) across all competitions, Valverde has scored 24 goals, with the latest coming at the Bernabeu on Sunday night. Using big data gives him 15.72 expected goals. Taking into account the difficulty and positioning on the pitch of his shots, the 26-year-old midfielder has scored 9 more goals than expected, given his statistics.

The ‘Pajarito’ has surpassed Marco Asensio, who, despite not having found the back of the net in a few years, is second within the 'Merengues' team with a difference of +5.02 between expected goals and actual goals scored. Behind the Spanish centre-back, Lucas Vazquez (+3.10), Arda Guler (+2.89), Brahim Diaz (+2.63), and Jude Bellingham (2.21) are the other players with a difference above +2.

Valverde's winning goal against the Bilbao outfit was his sixth in La Liga this term, but only his first from inside the penalty area, which also helps to explain his elevated NPxG Difference. The former Penarol player has scored against Real Valladolid, Villarreal, Leganes, Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla this season in the Spanish top flight, finding the back of the net from long range on each occasion. Real Madrid have never lost a league game Valverde has scored in, counting five wins and one draw from six in total.