Can Davies' injury reopen the Bundesliga title?

Bundesliga action returns following the end of the March international break, as we are set for an exciting end to the season. With eight games remaining, Bayern Munich are the favourites to retain their crown after missing out on it last term, as they sit six points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen, the defending champions. That said, recent setbacks have now put that into doubt.

The Bavarians were handed a major double blow earlier this week as Alphonso Davies and Dayot Upamecano are both expected to remain sidelined due to injuries. The Frenchman will be out for several weeks due to a knee issue, but the Canadian star player has had it the worst between the two, as his season is over after tearing an ACL in his right knee. And his absence could prove to be crucial.

Using the BeSoccer Pro data to analyse the 2024/25 Bundesliga campaign will show that the 24-year-old's presence on the pitch is vital for Bayern Munich, whether he plays as a starter or comes on from the bench. Not only does the club's work rate in attack and defence fall drastically when Davies is not playing, but their results are also significantly worse.

With Davies in attendance on the field, Bayern count 16 wins and 4 draws from 20 matches, gaining 52 out of 60 points in total. This means an average of 2.6 points per match, or a win rate of 86.66%. These figures go hand-in-hand with those relating to goals. 63 goals scored for Bayern (3.15 per league game), only 15 conceded (0.75). But without the Ghana native, Vincent Kompany's men have been far from unstoppable.

Of the 6 fixtures Davies missed this season in the league, Bayern Munich have only been able to win 3 (50%), drawing one of them and crashing to defeats on two occasions. These two losses - against Mainz and Bochum - are the only two the club has suffered this entire campaign. In short, the Germans only managed to bag 10 out of 18 points, bringing their average down from 2.6 to 1.67 - almost 1 point less per match.

Overall, Bayern's results in the matches the full-back has missed are the following: 2-1 defeat to Mainz on matchday 14, 1-2 win against Freiburg on matchday 19, 4-3 win against Hostel Kiel on matchday 20, 3-0 win against Werder Bremen on matchday 21, 0-0 draw against Bayer Leverkusen on matchday 22 and a 2-3 defeat to Bochum on matchday 25.

Given his attacking qualities, it is no surprise that 'Die Roten' have more difficulties in finding the back of the net in Davies' absence. The 12 goals scored across the six games mentioned above give Kompany's side an average of 2 goals per match, which is 1.15 less than the 3.15 they have with the former Vancouver Whitecaps player on the pitch.

Similarly, the average for the number of goals conceded per match also gets worse, going from 0.75 to 1.5, which is double the amount (9 goals conceded in 6 games). The data analysed throughout this article underline just how important Alphonso Davies is for Bayern Munich, but also suggest that, with eight games remaining, the fight for the Bundesliga crown may have just reopened.