Beyond the hype: Breaking down the Ballon d'Or battle

Using data from BeSoccer Pro, we examine the leading contenders and assess both their strengths and the factors that could stand in their way.

While the spotlight shines most brightly on Ousmane Dembele, Lamine Yamal, Vitinha, Raphinha and Kylian Mbappe, several others have also enjoyed exceptional seasons and are pushing hard to enter the conversation.

Ousmane Dembele – The clear front-runner

The PSG forward finally fulfilled his immense potential in a season that brought both team success and individual brilliance. Dembele netted 35 goals and provided 15 assists as Paris Saint-Germain swept all domestic titles and added the Champions League to their haul.

A narrow defeat in the Club World Cup final was the only blemish on an otherwise stellar campaign.

- Pros: Career-best form, spearheaded Europe's top side, and delivered when it mattered most in the Champions League.

- Cons: His achievements may be overshadowed by the collective strength of PSG — and Ligue 1's status remains a question mark compared to La Liga or the Premier League.

Lamine Yamal – The sensational teen challenger

Still just 17, Lamine Yamal enjoyed a meteoric rise, becoming one of world football's most exciting talents. Now wearing Barcelona's No.10 shirt, he registered 18 goals and 21 assists, guiding the Catalans to a domestic treble.

His composure, flair and influence in major fixtures have turned heads, though a Champions League semi-final exit and Nations League runners-up medal slightly dent his credentials.

- Pros: Spectacular breakthrough season, elite output at a young age, and a central figure in Barcelona's success.

- Cons: A relative lack of killer instinct, Champions League disappointment, and absence from the Club World Cup may count against him.

Vitinha – Midfield mastery in the shadows

Though often overlooked amid PSG's array of attacking stars, Vitinha quietly asserted himself as arguably the world's finest midfielder last season. Playing over 4,500 minutes in 59 appearances, he was vital in PSG's dominance both domestically and in Europe, and played a key role in Portugal's Nations League triumph.

- Pros: Tactical intelligence, consistent influence in big matches, and a pivotal presence in midfield.

- Cons: A midfielder's contribution rarely translates into Ballon d'Or votes, and Dembele's dazzling displays may have stolen much of the spotlight.

Raphinha – The numbers don't lie

Statistically, no attacking player had a better season than Raphinha. Under Hansi Flick, the Brazilian exploded into form, scoring 34 goals and providing 22 assists — an astonishing 56 goal contributions.

He was instrumental in Barcelona's treble and was the most productive player in the Champions League, topping both the scoring and assists charts.

- Pros: Historic output across all competitions and a standout in Europe's top-tier tournament.

- Cons: Despite his numbers, he was often overshadowed by Lamine Yamal in narrative terms and missed out on European and Club World Cup titles.

Kylian Mbappe – Big numbers, limited impact

In his debut campaign for Real Madrid, Mbappe took time to find his rhythm but still finished with 44 goals — earning him the European Golden Boot.

However, his season lacked silverware beyond the European Super Cup and Intercontinental Cup, and his absence in several key fixtures has raised questions.

- Pros: Massive individual numbers in his first season at the Bernabeu and another Golden Boot in the bag.

- Cons: Failed to shine in the biggest moments, and Real Madrid underwhelmed in major competitions.

Honourable mentions

A few other standout performers delivered exceptional seasons but fall just short in the Ballon d'Or race — largely due to their teams' performances in Europe or a lack of sustained impact throughout the year.

- Mohamed Salah recorded a phenomenal 57 goal contributions (34 goals, 23 assists) and led Liverpool to the Premier League title, but faltered elsewhere.

- Harry Kane struck 44 times and added 12 assists, winning the Bundesliga with Bayern, but their early Champions League and Club World Cup exits harmed his chances.

- Cole Palmer inspired Chelsea to the Conference League and Club World Cup titles, even producing a memorable final display. However, a quiet start to the year weakened his overall case.

A crowded field, a wide-open race

The Ballon d'Or 2025 may yet spring surprises. With no consensus frontrunner in the mould of Messi or Ronaldo, the final vote will come down to how voters weigh collective achievements, individual brilliance and narrative momentum.

For now, Dembele leads the pack — but as always, the Ballon d'Or remains as unpredictable as the game itself.