CONCACAF Champions Last 16
Global 5-6
W Connection vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
16%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.7%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
4.3%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
11.2%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.4%
61.6%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
13.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.5%
0-2
12%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.1%
0-3
7.3%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
10.4%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.5%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
W Connection
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2003 |
TOL
3 - 2
CON
90%
7%
3%
|
66 | 84 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2002 |
CON
2 - 0
USR
81%
12%
6%
|
66 | 38 | 28 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2002 |
CON
2 - 1
HAR
45%
24%
31%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2002 |
KCW
2 - 0
CON
66%
19%
15%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2002 |
CON
0 - 1
KCW
43%
25%
32%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2003 |
JAG
1 - 1
TOL
24%
27%
50%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2003 |
TOL
3 - 0
AME
63%
20%
18%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2003 |
PUE
3 - 1
TOL
23%
27%
50%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2003 |
TOL
3 - 2
CON
90%
7%
3%
|
84 | 66 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2003 |
TOL
4 - 0
QRO
80%
12%
8%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |