Copa do Brasil 1/32
First leg 4-1
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo PI analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
86.9%
Win probability
2.81
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.2%
+7
1.3%
6-0
2.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
3.3%
5-0
5.9%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
7.1%
4-0
10.6%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
13.1%
3-0
15%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
19.7%
2-0
16%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.8%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
19%
9.9%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
4.5%
2-2
1.2%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
9.9%
3.2%
Win probability
0.4
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
0.9%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
2.7%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.4%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
FLA
1 - 4
VAS
8%
16%
77%
|
80 | 33 | 47 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
MAD
0 - 3
VAS
9%
17%
74%
|
79 | 50 | 29 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2009 |
VAS
0 - 0
CAB
85%
11%
4%
|
80 | 56 | 24 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2009 |
FLU
0 - 0
VAS
55%
23%
23%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2009 |
RES
1 - 3
VAS
12%
18%
70%
|
79 | 55 | 24 | +1 |
Matches
Flamengo PI
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2009 |
FLA
4 - 0
RIV
37%
27%
36%
|
33 | 46 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
FLA
1 - 4
VAS
8%
16%
77%
|
33 | 80 | 47 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
BAR
1 - 0
FLA
64%
20%
16%
|
34 | 41 | 7 | -1 |
| 13 May. 2007 |
COR
1 - 2
FLA
56%
23%
22%
|
33 | 36 | 3 | +1 |
| 09 May. 2007 |
FLA
1 - 4
CAC
31%
25%
43%
|
35 | 47 | 12 | -2 |