Tercera RFEF - Play Offs Ascenso Semi-finals
Global 1-3
CD Varea vs La Calzada analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
15.8%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD Varea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 2023 |
CDF
1 - 1
VAR
25%
23%
52%
|
36 | 29 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2023 |
VAR
4 - 2
ANG
63%
20%
17%
|
35 | 28 | 7 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
ANG
2 - 3
VAR
32%
23%
45%
|
34 | 29 | 5 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
VAR
2 - 3
NAX
40%
23%
38%
|
35 | 38 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
BER
4 - 5
VAR
16%
20%
64%
|
35 | 21 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
La Calzada
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 2023 |
CDF
1 - 1
VAR
25%
23%
52%
|
29 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2023 |
CDF
5 - 2
OYO
42%
26%
33%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
OYO
0 - 0
CDF
41%
26%
33%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
CDF
1 - 0
BER
64%
20%
16%
|
28 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
RIV
1 - 0
CDF
21%
24%
56%
|
29 | 21 | 8 | -1 |