Universities AFC vs Nelson Suburbs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
7.3%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
1.6%
1-0
1.7%
2-1
2.2%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
5.2%
11.7%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
11.7%
81%
Win probability
3.08
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.3%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
8.2%
2-4
2.7%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
20.6%
0-3
9.4%
1-4
6.3%
2-5
1.7%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
17.6%
0-4
7.2%
1-5
3.9%
2-6
0.9%
3-7
0.1%
-4
12.1%
0-5
4.5%
1-6
2%
2-7
0.4%
3-8
0%
-5
6.9%
0-6
2.3%
1-7
0.9%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
3.3%
0-7
1%
1-8
0.3%
2-9
0.1%
-7
1.4%
0-8
0.4%
1-9
0.1%
2-10
0%
-8
0.5%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.2%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-48%
+30%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
6º
10º
9º
20
1º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
29 | 42 |
1º
|
68.5% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 40 |
2º
|
56.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 40 |
3º
|
56.5% | |
|
4º
|
21 | 28 |
4º
|
41% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 27 |
5º
|
32% | |
|
5º
|
21 | 25 |
6º
|
34.5% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 21 |
7º
|
39.5% | |
|
8º
|
12 | 19 |
8º
|
49.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
69.5% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 5 |
10º
|
69.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
69.5% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
30.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Universities AFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
NOM
1 - 0
UOC
86%
9%
5%
|
10 | 21 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
UOC
1 - 2
WNK
9%
13%
78%
|
10 | 22 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2025 |
UOC
2 - 7
COA
7%
11%
82%
|
10 | 32 | 22 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
CAS
8 - 4
UOC
93%
5%
2%
|
10 | 33 | 23 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
UOC
1 - 0
DUN
12%
16%
72%
|
9 | 18 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
DUN
0 - 1
NSF
21%
18%
62%
|
24 | 18 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
FER
1 - 0
NSF
27%
21%
53%
|
25 | 20 | 5 | -1 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
FER
3 - 5
NSF
29%
22%
49%
|
24 | 21 | 3 | +1 |
| 08 Jun. 2025 |
NSF
5 - 0
SUF
92%
6%
2%
|
24 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
NOM
3 - 0
NSF
22%
20%
59%
|
25 | 19 | 6 | -1 |