Paulista B Knock-outs Semi-finals
Global 4-3
União São João vs Grêmio Sãocarlense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
65.5%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
14.9%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-18%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União São João
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
UNI
3 - 1
NAC
61%
21%
18%
|
53 | 45 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
NAC
0 - 0
UNI
22%
22%
56%
|
53 | 45 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
UNI
0 - 0
NAC
65%
19%
16%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | -1 |
| 16 Aug. 2023 |
SJS
0 - 1
UNI
15%
19%
66%
|
54 | 33 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
ECN
0 - 1
UNI
27%
23%
50%
|
53 | 48 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Grêmio Sãocarlense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
GDS
3 - 0
UNI
51%
25%
25%
|
44 | 35 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
UNI
0 - 1
GDS
30%
25%
45%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | +1 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
GDS
0 - 0
UNI
49%
25%
27%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2023 |
AME
1 - 2
GDS
28%
23%
50%
|
42 | 33 | 9 | +1 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
VOC
2 - 1
GDS
28%
25%
47%
|
44 | 38 | 6 | -2 |