Série D Brazil Final Stages Last 16
Global 1-1
URT vs Villa Nova analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.9%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
12%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.9%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
16.3%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
URT
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2017 |
POR
1 - 1
URT
43%
27%
30%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2017 |
URT
1 - 0
POR
41%
27%
32%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2017 |
URT
0 - 0
POR
41%
26%
32%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2017 |
ITU
0 - 1
URT
47%
28%
25%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 11 Jun. 2017 |
URT
2 - 1
AUD
36%
27%
37%
|
49 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Villa Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 2017 |
URO
1 - 2
VIL
56%
25%
20%
|
45 | 48 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2017 |
VIL
2 - 0
URO
38%
25%
36%
|
44 | 50 | 6 | +1 |
| 25 Jun. 2017 |
BAN
1 - 1
VIL
53%
26%
21%
|
44 | 45 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2017 |
VIL
2 - 1
DES
56%
23%
22%
|
43 | 43 | 0 | +1 |
| 10 Jun. 2017 |
POR
0 - 0
VIL
64%
22%
15%
|
42 | 47 | 5 | +1 |