UMBC vs Stony Brook analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
49.7%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.6%
28.7%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-14%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UMBC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2021 |
VER
2 - 1
MBC
65%
18%
17%
|
23 | 29 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2021 |
UML
2 - 1
MBC
30%
22%
47%
|
24 | 19 | 5 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2021 |
MBC
3 - 0
HHH
50%
22%
29%
|
23 | 23 | 0 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2021 |
NJH
1 - 0
MBC
49%
21%
30%
|
24 | 23 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Mar. 2021 |
MBC
2 - 1
SBS
45%
22%
33%
|
23 | 24 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Stony Brook
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2021 |
SBS
1 - 3
HHH
59%
20%
21%
|
24 | 21 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2021 |
BUB
1 - 0
SBS
40%
22%
38%
|
24 | 22 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2021 |
SBS
2 - 0
VER
26%
22%
52%
|
22 | 30 | 8 | +2 |
| 09 Apr. 2021 |
UML
2 - 1
SBS
32%
22%
47%
|
22 | 19 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2021 |
SBS
2 - 3
NJH
51%
21%
28%
|
23 | 22 | 1 | -1 |