UFC Maria Alm vs Penk analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.2%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
16.6%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UFC Maria Alm
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2009 |
WOL
1 - 1
UMA
69%
19%
13%
|
13 | 18 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2009 |
RAP
1 - 0
UMA
61%
21%
18%
|
15 | 18 | 3 | -2 |
| 08 Aug. 2009 |
UMA
1 - 1
VOL
21%
24%
55%
|
14 | 23 | 9 | +1 |
| 31 Jul. 2009 |
LEN
0 - 0
UMA
73%
17%
10%
|
13 | 20 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Penk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2009 |
SVP
1 - 1
TRE
15%
22%
63%
|
10 | 20 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2009 |
SVP
1 - 2
WAC
16%
22%
61%
|
10 | 20 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2009 |
MIC
2 - 0
SVP
71%
18%
11%
|
11 | 18 | 7 | -1 |
| 01 Aug. 2009 |
SVP
1 - 2
SPI
13%
21%
66%
|
11 | 31 | 20 | 0 |