União da Serra vs Benfica Castelo Branco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
49.8%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.2%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
25.6%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
27
2º
10º
10º
40
1º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
80% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
20% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
UDR
1 - 2
UDA
43%
22%
35%
|
38 | 35 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 2
MAR
61%
20%
19%
|
38 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
1DE
2 - 0
UDA
24%
23%
53%
|
40 | 34 | 6 | -2 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 0
MOR
64%
18%
18%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 1
UDA
28%
21%
51%
|
38 | 30 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
BEN
1 - 1
SER
39%
27%
34%
|
41 | 45 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
ALC
0 - 2
BEN
17%
22%
62%
|
40 | 25 | 15 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
BEN
3 - 1
LOU
45%
27%
28%
|
39 | 40 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
PER
3 - 1
BEN
41%
26%
33%
|
40 | 37 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
BEN
2 - 1
COR
62%
21%
17%
|
39 | 32 | 7 | +1 |