União da Serra vs Marinhense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.3%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
6%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.5%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
19.2%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-25%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
27
2º
10º
10º
41
1º
10º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
80% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
20% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
1DE
2 - 0
UDA
24%
23%
53%
|
40 | 34 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 0
MOR
64%
18%
18%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 1
UDA
28%
21%
51%
|
38 | 30 | 8 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
0 - 4
OLI
17%
18%
65%
|
40 | 52 | 12 | -2 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
SER
1 - 0
UDA
41%
27%
32%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Marinhense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
MAR
0 - 0
SER
26%
28%
47%
|
36 | 44 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
ALC
0 - 1
MAR
20%
22%
58%
|
35 | 24 | 11 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
MAR
0 - 0
LOU
35%
26%
39%
|
35 | 40 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
PER
1 - 0
MAR
40%
26%
35%
|
36 | 34 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
MAR
2 - 1
COR
47%
25%
28%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | +1 |