Toluca vs Necaxa analysis

Toluca Necaxa
83 ELO 76
19.8% Tilt 7.3%
333º General ELO ranking 513º
Country ELO ranking 13º
ELO win probability
73.2%
Toluca
16.8%
Draw
10%
Necaxa

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73.2%
Win probability
Toluca
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.8%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.7%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
8%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.8%
9.9%
Win probability
Necaxa
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.3%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Toluca
+23%
+4%
Necaxa

Points and table prediction

Toluca
Their league position
Necaxa
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
12º
12º
15
18º
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
18º
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
América
40
40
100%
Monterrey
33
33
100%
Tigres UANL
30
30
100%
Pumas UNAM
28
28
100%
Chivas Guadalajara
27
27
100%
Puebla
25
25
100%
Atl. San Luis
23
23
100%
León
23
23
0%
Santos Laguna
23
23
0%
Mazatlán
10º
22
22
10º
0%
Pachuca
11º
22
22
11º
0%
Toluca
12º
21
21
12º
100%
Tijuana
13º
20
20
13º
100%
Querétaro
14º
19
19
14º
100%
FC Juárez
15º
18
18
15º
100%
Cruz Azul
16º
17
17
16º
0%
Atlas FC
17º
17
17
17º
0%
Necaxa
18º
15
15
18º
100%
Expected probabilities
Toluca
Necaxa
Final Series
0% 0%
Play-offs
0% 0%
Mid-table
100% 100%

ELO progression

Toluca
Necaxa
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Toluca
Toluca
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
18 Jun. 2023
TOL
Toluca
0 - 0
América
AME
48%
23%
30%
83 84 1 0
14 May. 2023
TOL
Toluca
3 - 1
Tigres UANL
TIG
51%
23%
25%
82 84 2 +1
12 May. 2023
TIG
Tigres UANL
4 - 1
Toluca
TOL
43%
25%
32%
83 84 1 -1
30 Apr. 2023
TOL
Toluca
3 - 0
Necaxa
NEC
72%
18%
11%
82 76 6 +1
23 Apr. 2023
TOL
Toluca
1 - 1
FC Juárez
JUA
78%
15%
8%
82 71 11 0

Matches

Necaxa
Necaxa
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
23 Jun. 2023
AUR
Atl. San Luis
2 - 2
Necaxa
NEC
50%
25%
25%
75 75 0 0
17 Jun. 2023
NEC
Necaxa
1 - 1
Querétaro
QRO
50%
24%
26%
75 74 1 0
14 Jun. 2023
NEC
Necaxa
2 - 0
Celaya
TOR
47%
25%
27%
75 76 1 0
08 Jun. 2023
DCU
DC United
0 - 1
Necaxa
NEC
53%
24%
24%
75 75 0 0
30 Apr. 2023
TOL
Toluca
3 - 0
Necaxa
NEC
72%
18%
11%
76 82 6 -1