CONCACAF Champions Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Toluca vs Deportivo Saprissa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
71.7%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.2%
2-0
13%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.5%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
10.6%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2006 |
JAG
2 - 0
TOL
43%
26%
31%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2006 |
AME
1 - 0
TOL
50%
24%
26%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
TOL
3 - 1
EST
63%
21%
16%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2006 |
TOL
2 - 1
OLI
69%
18%
13%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2006 |
ATS
0 - 1
TOL
36%
27%
37%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Deportivo Saprissa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2006 |
MUN
2 - 1
SAP
31%
28%
41%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2006 |
SAP
1 - 1
RAM
78%
15%
7%
|
75 | 56 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
CSH
0 - 1
SAP
50%
26%
24%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2006 |
SAP
3 - 2
GAL
45%
25%
31%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2006 |
SAP
1 - 0
MUN
72%
18%
10%
|
75 | 59 | 16 | 0 |