CONCACAF Champions Quarter-finals
Global 5-4
Toluca vs Columbus Crew analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.6%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.8%
16.6%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2010 |
TOL
2 - 3
CAZ
44%
26%
30%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2010 |
COC
2 - 2
TOL
38%
27%
35%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2010 |
ATS
1 - 1
TOL
39%
28%
33%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2010 |
TOL
3 - 0
IND
62%
23%
16%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2010 |
MOR
0 - 0
TOL
49%
26%
25%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Columbus Crew
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2010 |
COC
2 - 2
TOL
38%
27%
35%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2009 |
COC
2 - 3
RSL
50%
25%
25%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | -1 |
| 31 Oct. 2009 |
RSL
1 - 0
COC
39%
27%
34%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | -1 |
| 25 Oct. 2009 |
COC
0 - 1
NER
55%
25%
20%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 2009 |
PRI
1 - 1
COC
31%
26%
44%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |