CONCACAF Champions Final
Global 1-1
Toluca vs Cruz Azul analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
49.8%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
25.8%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 2014 |
ATS
1 - 0
TOL
32%
28%
41%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2014 |
CAZ
0 - 0
TOL
46%
26%
28%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2014 |
TOL
2 - 1
LEO
54%
24%
23%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2014 |
TOL
2 - 0
LDA
64%
21%
15%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2014 |
TIJ
3 - 1
TOL
38%
27%
35%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Cruz Azul
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2014 |
MOR
5 - 1
CAZ
46%
25%
29%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2014 |
CAZ
0 - 0
TOL
46%
26%
28%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2014 |
CAZ
2 - 2
PAC
58%
23%
19%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2014 |
CAZ
2 - 0
TIJ
51%
25%
24%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2014 |
AME
1 - 2
CAZ
53%
24%
24%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |