Q. Europa League First Round Final
Global 3-0
Tobol Kostanay vs Samtredia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.7%
16.8%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tobol Kostanay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2018 |
KAI
2 - 2
TOB
35%
30%
35%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2018 |
SAM
0 - 1
TOB
35%
26%
39%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2018 |
TOB
0 - 0
AST
38%
27%
35%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2018 |
AKZ
1 - 3
TOB
36%
29%
35%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | +1 |
| 23 Jun. 2018 |
TOB
2 - 3
FCA
53%
25%
22%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Samtredia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul. 2018 |
SAM
0 - 1
TOB
35%
26%
39%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2018 |
SAM
1 - 3
SAB
34%
27%
39%
|
66 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2018 |
MET
2 - 1
SAM
34%
27%
39%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | -1 |
| 23 Jun. 2018 |
SAM
0 - 1
CHI
44%
26%
31%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2018 |
GOR
3 - 0
SAM
50%
25%
25%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | -1 |