WC Qual. Asia First Round Final
Global 3-11
East Timor vs Hong Kong analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
15.1%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.5%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
4.1%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.5%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
10%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.1%
63.8%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
12.1%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
11.8%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.6%
0-3
7.7%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
11.4%
0-4
3.8%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.2%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
1.9%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
East Timor
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 2003 |
TWN
3 - 0
TLS
94%
5%
1%
|
8 | 44 | 36 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2003 |
TLS
2 - 3
LKA
1%
10%
89%
|
9 | 49 | 40 | -1 |
Matches
Hong Kong
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun. 2007 |
PRK
1 - 0
HKG
83%
12%
5%
|
56 | 76 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2007 |
HKG
15 - 1
GUM
93%
6%
1%
|
56 | 22 | 34 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2007 |
HKG
1 - 1
TWN
82%
12%
6%
|
56 | 41 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 2007 |
HKG
2 - 1
MAC
77%
14%
9%
|
56 | 33 | 23 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2007 |
IDN
3 - 0
HKG
61%
21%
18%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | -1 |