Liga MX Finals Cl. Semi-finals
Global 1-4
Tigres UANL vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.5%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.8%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.8%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
33.3%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.2%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.6%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tigres UANL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2025 |
TIG
2 - 2
NEC
46%
24%
29%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2025 |
NEC
0 - 0
TIG
57%
23%
21%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
CAZ
1 - 0
TIG
53%
24%
23%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2025 |
TIG
1 - 1
CAZ
51%
25%
24%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2025 |
TIG
2 - 1
PUM
44%
26%
31%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2025 |
TOL
2 - 1
MON
54%
22%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2025 |
MON
3 - 2
TOL
47%
24%
30%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2025 |
TOL
2 - 2
CAZ
57%
23%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2025 |
AUR
0 - 1
TOL
45%
23%
31%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
ATS
2 - 3
TOL
33%
26%
41%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |