Thun vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
27.6%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.7%
2-0
4%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.2%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
48.7%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.8%
0-3
4.4%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.3%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.9%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
THU
3 - 1
WIL
43%
25%
32%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2023 |
BEL
0 - 3
THU
15%
21%
64%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
FCF
0 - 5
THU
3%
7%
90%
|
67 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2023 |
NEX
4 - 0
THU
20%
23%
57%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2023 |
THU
6 - 0
BAD
65%
20%
14%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2023 |
HOF
3 - 1
FCL
63%
20%
18%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
FCL
3 - 2
LUG
36%
25%
39%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
GCZ
0 - 1
FCL
33%
25%
42%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
WSG
0 - 6
FCL
3%
9%
88%
|
80 | 19 | 61 | -1 |
| 17 Aug. 2023 |
FCL
2 - 2
HIB
54%
23%
23%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |