Thun vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
19.4%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.6%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
58.8%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.8%
0-2
9.7%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.1%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.5%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 0
THU
42%
24%
34%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
LAU
4 - 1
THU
44%
22%
33%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
YOB
2 - 0
THU
81%
13%
6%
|
65 | 85 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
THU
0 - 1
BEL
55%
22%
23%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
THU
2 - 1
SIO
27%
23%
50%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 3
FCL
62%
21%
17%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
FCL
2 - 2
ZUR
39%
25%
36%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2023 |
BOC
1 - 1
FCL
45%
24%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
FCL
1 - 5
M05
32%
25%
43%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2022 |
STU
0 - 3
FCL
53%
23%
24%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |