Thun vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.5%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.4%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
20.3%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
THU
5 - 1
ZUR
42%
25%
32%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2015 |
THU
0 - 0
FCA
61%
22%
17%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2015 |
FCV
1 - 1
THU
38%
27%
35%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2015 |
THU
0 - 1
YOB
37%
26%
38%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2015 |
STG
1 - 0
THU
35%
27%
38%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
LUG
3 - 1
STG
40%
26%
35%
|
71 | 73 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2015 |
FCL
2 - 2
LUG
64%
22%
15%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2015 |
BAS
3 - 1
LUG
71%
19%
11%
|
70 | 85 | 15 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2015 |
LUG
0 - 0
ZUR
28%
25%
47%
|
70 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2015 |
BEL
2 - 3
LUG
41%
25%
34%
|
69 | 67 | 2 | +1 |