Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
57.2%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
6%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.6%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.2%
20.7%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
72
1º
3º
1º
61
1º
10º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
54 | 54 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
53 | 53 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
53 | 53 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
51 | 51 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 41 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 28 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
100% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2024 |
NEX
2 - 3
THU
22%
24%
55%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
THU
2 - 1
ETO
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Nov. 2024 |
STA
1 - 6
THU
19%
23%
58%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
THU
3 - 1
SCH
66%
20%
14%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | +1 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
FCV
2 - 0
THU
26%
25%
49%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 1
WIL
48%
24%
28%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
BEL
1 - 4
FCA
27%
25%
48%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | +1 |
| 01 Nov. 2024 |
ETO
2 - 1
FCA
40%
24%
36%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
STA
59%
22%
19%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | +1 |
| 18 Oct. 2024 |
SCH
0 - 3
FCA
34%
25%
41%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | +1 |