Thun vs Aarau analysis

Thun Aarau
83 ELO 79
6.1% Tilt 13.9%
426º General ELO ranking 742º
12º Country ELO ranking 15º
ELO win probability
50.6%
Thun
23%
Draw
26.4%
Aarau

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.6%
Win probability
Thun
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
23%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
26.4%
Win probability
Aarau
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Thun
+6%
-1%
Aarau

Points and table prediction

Thun
Their league position
Aarau
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
72
61
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Thun
72
72
100%
Aarau
61
61
100%
Etoile Carouge
54
54
100%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
53
53
100%
FC Wil
53
53
100%
FC Vaduz
51
51
100%
AC Bellinzona
44
44
100%
Neuchâtel Xamax
41
41
100%
Stade Nyonnais
36
36
100%
Schaffhausen
10º
25
28
10º
100%
Expected probabilities
Thun
Aarau
Promotion
100% 0%
Promotion play-offs
0% 100%
Mid-table
0% 0%
Conference League knock out round
0% 0%
Relegation
0% 0%

ELO progression

Thun
Aarau
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Thun
Thun
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
25 Apr. 2025
NEX
Neuchâtel Xamax
0 - 2
Thun
THU
21%
23%
56%
83 72 11 0
21 Apr. 2025
THU
Thun
7 - 0
FC Wil
WIL
58%
23%
20%
82 74 8 +1
11 Apr. 2025
STA
Stade Nyonnais
0 - 2
Thun
THU
13%
21%
66%
82 65 17 0
04 Apr. 2025
THU
Thun
3 - 0
Schaffhausen
SCH
73%
18%
9%
82 66 16 0
31 Mar. 2025
STA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3 - 0
Thun
THU
28%
25%
48%
82 76 6 0

Matches

Aarau
Aarau
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
25 Apr. 2025
SCH
Schaffhausen
1 - 1
Aarau
FCA
19%
22%
59%
79 67 12 0
18 Apr. 2025
FCA
Aarau
2 - 2
FC Vaduz
FCV
42%
25%
33%
79 76 3 0
11 Apr. 2025
NEX
Neuchâtel Xamax
1 - 1
Aarau
FCA
23%
23%
54%
79 71 8 0
04 Apr. 2025
FCA
Aarau
2 - 2
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
STA
44%
26%
30%
79 77 2 0
31 Mar. 2025
BEL
AC Bellinzona
1 - 1
Aarau
FCA
17%
22%
61%
79 69 10 0