Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
47.6%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
28.4%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
76
1º
5º
2º
43
3º
7º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
SCH
1 - 1
THU
23%
24%
54%
|
72 | 63 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
THU
4 - 1
STA
58%
23%
19%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
BEL
0 - 0
THU
16%
22%
62%
|
71 | 60 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
THU
5 - 3
BIE
76%
15%
8%
|
71 | 51 | 20 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
THU
4 - 0
VEV
85%
12%
4%
|
71 | 43 | 28 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
FCA
5 - 2
STA
54%
23%
22%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
SIO
2 - 0
FCA
48%
25%
27%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
BAD
1 - 2
FCA
17%
21%
62%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | +1 |
| 26 Jan. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
FCV
45%
24%
31%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2024 |
ZUR
4 - 2
FCA
68%
18%
14%
|
67 | 83 | 16 | 0 |