Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.7%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.1%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
32%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
4º
9º
6º
57
2º
7º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
66 | 66 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
49 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 24 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
WIL
1 - 2
THU
29%
24%
47%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2023 |
THU
2 - 0
BEL
67%
20%
13%
|
68 | 55 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
LAU
1 - 3
THU
45%
25%
31%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
THU
1 - 1
WIL
44%
25%
31%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
SCH
0 - 5
THU
35%
25%
39%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
STA
3 - 4
FCA
36%
24%
40%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
FCA
0 - 2
FCV
46%
24%
30%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 3
FCA
40%
24%
36%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
FCA
2 - 3
STA
49%
25%
26%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2023 |
NEX
0 - 0
FCA
20%
22%
58%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |