Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
35.9%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.5%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.1%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
39.9%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.2%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.9%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2022 |
NEX
4 - 1
THU
21%
23%
56%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2022 |
THU
3 - 1
KRI
75%
17%
8%
|
67 | 48 | 19 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 2022 |
FCV
0 - 2
THU
41%
25%
34%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2022 |
THU
2 - 1
STA
45%
26%
30%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 Mar. 2022 |
KRI
0 - 1
THU
11%
18%
72%
|
66 | 48 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2022 |
FCA
0 - 3
WIN
48%
24%
28%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2022 |
WIL
3 - 4
FCA
23%
23%
54%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2022 |
GCZ
1 - 1
FCA
45%
22%
32%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2022 |
FCA
0 - 2
YVE
52%
23%
25%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Mar. 2022 |
WIN
4 - 2
FCA
30%
24%
46%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | 0 |