Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58.8%
Win probability
1.99
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.5%
19.7%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2020 |
KRI
1 - 2
THU
36%
24%
39%
|
70 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2020 |
THU
0 - 1
WIN
51%
23%
26%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2020 |
CHI
0 - 2
THU
10%
19%
70%
|
70 | 51 | 19 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 2020 |
THU
1 - 3
NEX
62%
21%
17%
|
71 | 62 | 9 | -1 |
| 26 Sep. 2020 |
WIL
3 - 1
THU
20%
24%
56%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2020 |
FCA
3 - 1
NEX
39%
25%
37%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2020 |
SCH
1 - 2
FCA
29%
23%
48%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 2020 |
STA
1 - 1
FCA
37%
25%
39%
|
59 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2020 |
FCA
0 - 2
STR
24%
24%
52%
|
59 | 76 | 17 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2020 |
FCA
2 - 1
CHI
68%
18%
14%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | 0 |