Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.1%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.4%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.7%
18.2%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2015 |
THU
1 - 2
LAU
69%
19%
12%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2015 |
HER
1 - 0
THU
51%
26%
23%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2015 |
SGF
3 - 0
THU
39%
26%
35%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2015 |
THU
3 - 0
FCK
78%
15%
7%
|
80 | 59 | 21 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2014 |
THU
2 - 1
ZUR
38%
25%
37%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2015 |
WIL
1 - 0
FCA
39%
24%
38%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2015 |
HAN
3 - 1
FCA
66%
20%
14%
|
71 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2015 |
FCA
6 - 1
FCK
70%
18%
12%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2014 |
FCV
1 - 0
FCA
43%
25%
32%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2014 |
FCA
0 - 3
FCL
33%
24%
43%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | -1 |