Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
58%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.8%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.9%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.1%
20%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
SIO
0 - 0
THU
38%
28%
34%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
THU
3 - 2
GCZ
41%
26%
34%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 2014 |
BAS
1 - 1
THU
62%
21%
17%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2014 |
THU
3 - 2
FCL
40%
25%
35%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2014 |
LAU
0 - 1
THU
26%
25%
49%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
FCA
0 - 3
STG
39%
26%
36%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
FCA
3 - 2
YOB
27%
25%
48%
|
72 | 82 | 10 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 2014 |
GCZ
2 - 1
FCA
54%
24%
22%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2014 |
ZUR
0 - 0
FCA
59%
22%
18%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2014 |
CHI
0 - 1
FCA
15%
21%
64%
|
72 | 59 | 13 | 0 |