Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
8%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
12.6%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
14.2%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2006 |
MEY
2 - 3
THU
12%
19%
68%
|
78 | 38 | 40 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2006 |
THU
1 - 1
FCL
62%
21%
17%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2006 |
ZUR
5 - 0
THU
62%
21%
17%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2006 |
THU
0 - 1
SIO
59%
23%
18%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2006 |
THU
0 - 2
STG
55%
23%
22%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2006 |
LAU
0 - 1
FCA
44%
24%
32%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2006 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCA
81%
13%
6%
|
67 | 84 | 17 | -1 |
| 17 Sep. 2006 |
FCA
0 - 3
STG
32%
27%
41%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2006 |
GCZ
3 - 1
FCA
72%
18%
10%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | -1 |
| 20 Aug. 2006 |
FCA
0 - 1
YOB
20%
23%
57%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | 0 |