Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
68.2%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.8%
13.1%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2005 |
THU
3 - 1
STG
58%
22%
20%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2005 |
ZUR
6 - 3
THU
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2005 |
NEX
0 - 0
THU
37%
27%
36%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2005 |
THU
1 - 1
YOB
53%
23%
25%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2005 |
BAS
4 - 1
THU
67%
19%
15%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2005 |
ZUR
2 - 0
FCA
62%
22%
17%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2005 |
FCA
1 - 1
YOB
34%
25%
41%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 May. 2005 |
FCA
0 - 1
SCH
63%
21%
17%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2005 |
NEX
1 - 1
FCA
51%
25%
25%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2005 |
SCH
1 - 1
FCA
33%
26%
42%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | 0 |