Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
42.2%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
32.6%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.5%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2000 |
BEL
0 - 2
THU
63%
20%
17%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2000 |
THU
1 - 1
BEL
45%
25%
30%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2000 |
FCA
2 - 0
THU
61%
21%
17%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 2000 |
THU
1 - 2
ZUR
32%
24%
44%
|
69 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2000 |
THU
1 - 1
DEL
49%
24%
27%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2000 |
DEL
0 - 1
FCA
43%
24%
33%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2000 |
FCA
5 - 2
DEL
58%
22%
20%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2000 |
FCA
2 - 0
THU
61%
21%
17%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2000 |
BEL
2 - 2
FCA
49%
24%
27%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2000 |
LUG
3 - 2
FCA
56%
24%
21%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | -1 |