Thun vs Etoile Carouge analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.6%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.4%
16%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
72
1º
3º
1º
54
1º
5º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
54 | 54 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
53 | 53 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
53 | 53 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
51 | 51 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 41 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 36 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 28 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
100% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 2025 |
BEL
3 - 1
THU
16%
23%
61%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
FCV
3 - 3
THU
27%
25%
48%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
THU
2 - 1
FCA
51%
23%
26%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2025 |
NEX
0 - 2
THU
21%
23%
56%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2025 |
THU
7 - 0
WIL
58%
23%
20%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Etoile Carouge
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 2025 |
ETO
1 - 3
FCA
33%
25%
43%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2025 |
NEX
1 - 2
ETO
37%
26%
37%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | +1 |
| 02 May. 2025 |
ETO
1 - 2
STA
40%
26%
34%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2025 |
FCV
1 - 0
ETO
46%
25%
29%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
ETO
0 - 2
SCH
65%
21%
15%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |