UCL Qualifying First Round Final
Global 3-2
The New Saints vs Feronikeli analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.2%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
24%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24%
22.8%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May. 2019 |
CON
0 - 3
TNS
25%
22%
53%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2019 |
TNS
1 - 0
CON
68%
19%
14%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2019 |
TNS
3 - 1
CAE
79%
13%
8%
|
79 | 62 | 17 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2019 |
BAR
0 - 4
TNS
15%
21%
64%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2019 |
NEW
0 - 6
TNS
17%
21%
62%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | +1 |
Matches
Feronikeli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jun. 2019 |
FER
2 - 1
SCO
59%
23%
18%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2019 |
FER
1 - 0
LRI
43%
24%
34%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2019 |
TRE
1 - 5
FER
31%
27%
43%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2019 |
FER
1 - 0
PRI
55%
25%
20%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 May. 2019 |
LLA
1 - 3
FER
45%
27%
28%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |