The New Saints vs Connah's Quay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.9%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.8%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.7%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.7%
17.3%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+39%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
TNS
0 - 1
DIF
56%
20%
25%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
SHK
2 - 1
TNS
37%
22%
40%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Jul. 2025 |
TNS
0 - 0
SHK
66%
17%
16%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
NEW
1 - 0
TNS
39%
22%
39%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2025 |
AYR
1 - 1
TNS
60%
20%
20%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
AFC
6 - 1
CON
18%
22%
61%
|
65 | 49 | 16 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2025 |
MAC
2 - 1
CON
36%
24%
40%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
LBR
2 - 3
CON
8%
17%
75%
|
65 | 29 | 36 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
AIR
0 - 0
CON
53%
21%
25%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2025 |
CON
9 - 2
DEN
75%
16%
10%
|
65 | 47 | 18 | 0 |