The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
62.4%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.5%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
20%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
17.6%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+44%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
60
1º
6º
1º
25
3º
8º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
TNS
2 - 0
PON
78%
15%
8%
|
69 | 50 | 19 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
BAL
0 - 5
TNS
49%
24%
27%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
AAA
1 - 1
TNS
4%
9%
87%
|
69 | 35 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2022 |
TNS
4 - 1
NEW
60%
21%
19%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
TNS
6 - 2
FLI
68%
19%
14%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 1
ABE
62%
21%
17%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 0
FLI
51%
24%
25%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2022 |
FMC
0 - 4
CAE
3%
9%
88%
|
61 | 14 | 47 | +1 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
PON
3 - 1
CAE
21%
23%
56%
|
63 | 49 | 14 | -2 |
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
CAE
0 - 2
CON
41%
26%
33%
|
63 | 69 | 6 | 0 |