Surkhon Termez vs Sogdiana analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.2%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.1%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
31.9%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.8%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
8º
16º
8º
16
9º
15º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
33 | 40 |
1º
|
52% | |
|
2º
|
30 | 37 |
2º
|
24.5% | |
|
3º
|
29 | 36 |
3º
|
15% | |
|
4º
|
27 | 34 |
4º
|
24% | |
|
5º
|
27 | 34 |
5º
|
21% | |
|
6º
|
26 | 33 |
6º
|
22.5% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 33 |
7º
|
24% | |
|
|
8º
|
18 | 26 |
8º
|
29% | |
|
9º
|
17 | 24 |
9º
|
24% | |
|
10º
|
17 | 24 |
10º
|
19.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
16 | 23 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
12º
|
15 | 22 |
12º
|
16.5% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 20 |
13º
|
15.5% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 19 |
14º
|
21.5% | |
|
13º
|
14 | 18 |
15º
|
35% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 16 |
16º
|
72% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
0% | 0% |
|
AFC Champions League 2
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
99.5% | 88.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0.5% | 11.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Surkhon Termez
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 2025 |
TER
1 - 3
FCL
83%
12%
5%
|
65 | 13 | 52 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2025 |
DSA
1 - 0
TER
47%
26%
27%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | -1 |
| 03 May. 2025 |
TER
2 - 1
PAK
41%
27%
33%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2025 |
TER
0 - 1
DSA
39%
24%
37%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
MAS
0 - 0
TER
41%
28%
31%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Sogdiana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2025 |
SOG
1 - 1
SHO
63%
22%
15%
|
66 | 57 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
NEF
2 - 1
SOG
44%
27%
30%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2025 |
SOG
4 - 0
SEM
39%
22%
39%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
SOG
1 - 0
AND
43%
26%
31%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2025 |
OLM
3 - 2
SOG
53%
24%
24%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |