Nacional vs Trupial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.1%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
24%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
SVJ
1 - 2
NAC
50%
24%
26%
|
32 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 1
RIV
52%
24%
25%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2009 |
FAM
1 - 1
NAC
52%
24%
24%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2008 |
NAC
2 - 2
DAK
51%
24%
26%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2008 |
RCA
1 - 0
NAC
54%
23%
23%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Trupial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2009 |
RCA
5 - 1
SVT
56%
22%
22%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2009 |
SVT
0 - 1
DAK
44%
24%
32%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Jan. 2009 |
SVB
1 - 0
SVT
52%
23%
25%
|
29 | 31 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2008 |
SVT
0 - 2
RIV
46%
24%
29%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2008 |
EST
2 - 1
SVT
56%
22%
22%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | -1 |