SK Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.6%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.7%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
29.6%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.7%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
6º
9º
7º
30
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 82 |
1º
|
56% | |
|
2º
|
55 | 79 |
2º
|
56% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 58 |
3º
|
47.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 56 |
4º
|
39.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
30 | 48 |
5º
|
61% | |
|
6º
|
27 | 39 |
6º
|
37.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
22 | 36 |
7º
|
24.5% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 36 |
8º
|
21.5% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 34 |
9º
|
29.5% | |
|
10º
|
17 | 30 |
10º
|
52.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 4.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
69% | 94.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
19.5% | 1% |
|
Relegation
|
11.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SK Super Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2025 |
SUP
0 - 0
GRO
53%
23%
24%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2025 |
FKJ
1 - 0
SUP
33%
27%
41%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
ALB
1 - 3
SUP
51%
23%
26%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | +2 |
| 06 Jul. 2025 |
SUP
1 - 0
FKT
45%
24%
31%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
SUP
0 - 1
AUD
34%
26%
40%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
BFC Daugavpils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2025 |
AUD
1 - 3
BFC
56%
24%
19%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2025 |
BFC
2 - 4
VLZ
62%
21%
18%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 2025 |
FSL
2 - 4
BFC
6%
12%
82%
|
70 | 40 | 30 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2025 |
VLZ
0 - 1
BFC
40%
25%
36%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 Jul. 2025 |
CAR
1 - 1
BFC
58%
24%
18%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | 0 |