FC St Pauli vs SC Freiburg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
24.6%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
2.1%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.5%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.5%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.9%
50.5%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
5.1%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.4%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
13º
17º
14º
55
2º
10º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
82 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
68 | 68 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
55 | 55 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
54 | 54 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
51 | 51 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
51 | 51 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
50 | 50 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
45 | 45 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
43 | 43 |
11º
|
0% | |
|
12º
|
43 | 43 |
12º
|
0% | |
|
13º
|
40 | 40 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
32 | 32 |
14º
|
0% | |
|
15º
|
32 | 32 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
29 | 29 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
25 | 25 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
25 | 25 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC St Pauli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2025 |
RBL
2 - 0
STP
75%
16%
9%
|
88 | 97 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
STP
1 - 1
AUG
37%
26%
38%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
STP
3 - 0
FCU
34%
28%
39%
|
87 | 90 | 3 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
0 - 2
STP
44%
23%
33%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
BOC
1 - 0
STP
33%
24%
44%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
SC Freiburg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2025 |
SCF
1 - 0
HEI
61%
21%
18%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
BOC
0 - 1
SCF
23%
23%
53%
|
91 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
SCF
1 - 2
BYM
7%
12%
81%
|
91 | 100 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
STU
4 - 0
SCF
59%
22%
20%
|
91 | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
EIN
4 - 1
SCF
47%
25%
28%
|
91 | 93 | 2 | 0 |