UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 1-1
Sporting CP vs Twente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
15.5%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sporting CP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 2009 |
SCP
3 - 1
NAC
71%
18%
11%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2009 |
MAR
1 - 2
SCP
24%
27%
49%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2009 |
SCP
2 - 1
VST
75%
17%
8%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2009 |
ACA
0 - 0
SCP
21%
26%
52%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2009 |
SCP
2 - 1
EST
76%
16%
8%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Twente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 2009 |
TWE
2 - 2
SCH
51%
24%
25%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2009 |
AJA
1 - 0
TWE
64%
21%
16%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2009 |
TWE
3 - 0
AZA
42%
25%
33%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | +1 |
| 25 Apr. 2009 |
SCH
1 - 1
TWE
53%
23%
24%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2009 |
TWE
3 - 1
NAC
66%
20%
14%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |