SPAL vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.8%
4-0
6.5%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.6%
3-0
11.1%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.7%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.4%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
15.9%
8%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.1%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SPAL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2023 |
RIM
1 - 0
SPA
14%
25%
61%
|
69 | 50 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
SAS
1 - 1
SPA
20%
28%
52%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2023 |
SPA
1 - 0
SES
75%
16%
8%
|
69 | 54 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2023 |
ARZ
3 - 1
SPA
13%
25%
62%
|
69 | 48 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2023 |
SPA
0 - 0
FER
84%
12%
4%
|
69 | 48 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
OLB
0 - 0
ASL
39%
28%
33%
|
55 | 51 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
ASL
1 - 2
PON
42%
28%
31%
|
56 | 56 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Oct. 2023 |
RIM
2 - 0
ASL
32%
28%
40%
|
56 | 48 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
ASL
1 - 4
PES
20%
26%
55%
|
57 | 66 | 9 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
SAS
2 - 0
ASL
37%
30%
34%
|
57 | 56 | 1 | 0 |