Série D Brazil Final Stages Quarter-finals
Global 1-2
Sousa vs Ferroviária analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
28.4%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.1%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.3%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
18.3%
29.1%
Draw
0-0
11.5%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
29.1%
42.6%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
14.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
23.8%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
12.4%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.1%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sousa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
FER
1 - 0
SOU
59%
25%
16%
|
56 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
SOU
2 - 1
UNI
48%
25%
27%
|
55 | 52 | 3 | +1 |
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
UNI
1 - 2
SOU
45%
27%
28%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | +1 |
| 06 Aug. 2023 |
SOU
2 - 1
FFC
64%
21%
15%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
FFC
1 - 1
SOU
29%
27%
44%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
FER
1 - 0
SOU
59%
25%
16%
|
63 | 56 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
ANA
0 - 1
FER
35%
31%
34%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
FER
1 - 0
ANA
41%
28%
31%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
HER
2 - 2
FER
47%
28%
24%
|
61 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
FER
1 - 1
HER
39%
30%
31%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |