Sergipe vs Lagarto analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.5%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.2%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.2%
1-0
11%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
15.3%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.3%
8.2%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.1%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-41%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sergipe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2016 |
BOC
1 - 2
SER
19%
23%
59%
|
49 | 33 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2016 |
DOR
0 - 0
SER
23%
23%
54%
|
49 | 36 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2016 |
SER
1 - 2
EST
66%
20%
14%
|
50 | 41 | 9 | -1 |
| 05 Feb. 2016 |
GUA
1 - 6
SER
22%
26%
53%
|
49 | 36 | 13 | +1 |
| 31 Jan. 2016 |
CON
1 - 1
SER
60%
23%
18%
|
49 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Lagarto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2016 |
LAG
2 - 1
GUA
41%
25%
34%
|
33 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2016 |
LAG
1 - 1
AMA
39%
25%
37%
|
33 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2016 |
SOC
1 - 1
LAG
42%
24%
34%
|
33 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2016 |
LAG
1 - 2
ITA
38%
26%
36%
|
34 | 38 | 4 | -1 |
| 28 Jan. 2016 |
LAG
0 - 1
EST
25%
23%
52%
|
35 | 42 | 7 | -1 |