Série D Brazil Last 16
Global 3-4
Sergipe vs Alecrim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
18.8%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-52%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sergipe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
FER
3 - 3
SER
60%
22%
18%
|
47 | 51 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2009 |
SER
2 - 0
FER
33%
26%
41%
|
44 | 52 | 8 | +3 |
| 09 Aug. 2009 |
SER
1 - 2
CEN
48%
25%
28%
|
46 | 48 | 2 | -2 |
| 01 Aug. 2009 |
CSA
2 - 0
SER
39%
26%
35%
|
47 | 40 | 7 | -1 |
| 25 Jul. 2009 |
SAN
1 - 2
SER
65%
20%
15%
|
46 | 51 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Alecrim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
CEN
1 - 0
ALE
49%
26%
25%
|
45 | 47 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2009 |
ALE
2 - 0
CEN
40%
26%
34%
|
43 | 48 | 5 | +2 |
| 09 Aug. 2009 |
ALE
1 - 2
FER
30%
26%
44%
|
45 | 53 | 8 | -2 |
| 02 Aug. 2009 |
FLA
2 - 1
ALE
49%
25%
26%
|
46 | 45 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2009 |
ALE
2 - 0
TRE
41%
26%
33%
|
44 | 47 | 3 | +2 |