African WC Qual. 1st and 2nd Round Final
Global 1-4
Rwanda vs Libya analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
29.3%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.7%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.4%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.8%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.4%
28.1%
Draw
0-0
10.1%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
28.1%
42.6%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
12.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
23.3%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.5%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
4.9%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Rwanda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 0
RWA
58%
24%
18%
|
61 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
RWA
0 - 1
GAB
27%
26%
47%
|
62 | 70 | 8 | -1 |
| 05 Sep. 2015 |
RWA
0 - 1
GHA
17%
24%
59%
|
63 | 83 | 20 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2015 |
RWA
3 - 1
ETH
43%
26%
31%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | +2 |
| 14 Jun. 2015 |
MOZ
0 - 1
RWA
46%
27%
27%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Libya
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 0
RWA
58%
24%
18%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2015 |
LBY
0 - 4
MAR
27%
29%
44%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2015 |
TUN
1 - 0
LBY
65%
22%
13%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 2
CPV
44%
27%
29%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2015 |
TAN
1 - 2
LBY
24%
27%
49%
|
71 | 57 | 14 | +1 |