Papua New Guinea vs Tonga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
73%
Win probability
2.54
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.1%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.7%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.1%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.8%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
15.9%
11.1%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Papua New Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 2003 |
PNG
3 - 5
CYM
37%
23%
39%
|
39 | 50 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2002 |
PNG
1 - 3
TAH
20%
23%
57%
|
40 | 50 | 10 | -1 |
| 07 Jul. 2002 |
NZL
9 - 1
PNG
88%
9%
3%
|
40 | 73 | 33 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2002 |
PNG
0 - 0
SOL
29%
25%
46%
|
40 | 47 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2000 |
PNG
1 - 5
VAN
58%
21%
22%
|
41 | 40 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Tonga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2001 |
TON
1 - 8
FIJ
3%
15%
82%
|
22 | 57 | 35 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2001 |
ASA
0 - 5
TON
2%
13%
86%
|
22 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2001 |
TON
0 - 22
AUS
2%
16%
82%
|
22 | 89 | 67 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2001 |
SAM
0 - 1
TON
84%
11%
5%
|
22 | 41 | 19 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1996 |
TON
1 - 0
SAM
21%
26%
54%
|
16 | 40 | 24 | +6 |