New Caledonia vs New Zealand analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
20.3%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.2%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.2%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
57%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.5%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.4%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+20%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
New Caledonia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2025 |
NCL
3 - 0
TAH
57%
22%
22%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2024 |
FIJ
1 - 1
NCL
38%
25%
37%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2024 |
SOL
2 - 3
NCL
28%
25%
47%
|
53 | 48 | 5 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2024 |
NCL
3 - 1
PNG
76%
15%
9%
|
53 | 37 | 16 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
SOL
1 - 0
NCL
31%
23%
46%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
New Zealand
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 2025 |
NZL
7 - 0
FIJ
68%
20%
12%
|
71 | 53 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2024 |
SAM
0 - 8
NZL
8%
17%
75%
|
71 | 31 | 40 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
NZL
8 - 1
VAN
77%
16%
7%
|
70 | 45 | 25 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2024 |
NZL
4 - 0
MAS
55%
24%
21%
|
70 | 60 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2024 |
NZL
3 - 0
TAH
73%
18%
9%
|
70 | 48 | 22 | 0 |